Forecasting and Multilevel Early Warning of Wind Speed Using an Adaptive Kernel Estimator and Optimized Gated Recurrent Units

Abstract

Accurately predicting wind speeds is of great significance in various engineering applications, such as the operation of high-speed trains. Machine learning models are effective in this field. However, existing studies generally provide deterministic predictions and utilize decomposition techniques in advance to enhance predictive performance, which may encounter data leakage and fail to capture the stochastic nature of wind data. This work proposes an advanced framework for the prediction and early warning of wind speeds by combining the optimized gated recurrent unit (GRU) and adaptive kernel density estimator (AKDE). Firstly, 12 samples (26,280 points each) were collected from an extensive open database. Three representative metaheuristic algorithms were then employed to optimize the parameters of diverse models, including extreme learning machines, a transformer model, and recurrent networks. The results yielded an optimal selection using the GRU and the crested porcupine optimizer. Afterwards, by using the AKDE, the joint probability density and cumulative distribution function of wind predictions and related predicting errors could be obtained. It was then applicable to calculate the conditional probability that actual wind speed exceeds the critical value, thereby providing probabilistic-based predictions in a multilevel manner. A comparison of the predictive performance of various methods and accuracy of subsequent decisions validated the proposed framework.

Keywords

• wind speed forecasting
• gated recurrent unit
• metaheuristic optimization
• machine learning
• kernel density estimation
• cumulative distribution function