Model evaluation of target product profiles of an infant vaccine against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in a developed country setting
Timothy Kinyanjui,
Wirichada Pan-Ngum,
Sompob Saralamba,
Sylvia Taylor,
Lisa White,
D. James Nokes
Affiliations
Timothy Kinyanjui
Department of Mathematics, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester, UK; KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, KEMRI Centre for Geographic Medicine Research – Coast, Kilifi, Kenya; Peak AI, Neo, Charlotte Street, Manchester, UK; Corresponding author at: School of Mathematics, Alan Turing Building, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester, UK.
Wirichada Pan-Ngum
Mathematical and Economics Modelling (MAEMOD) Research Group, Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit (MORU), Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand; Department of Tropical Hygiene, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
Sompob Saralamba
Mathematical and Economics Modelling (MAEMOD) Research Group, Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit (MORU), Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
Sylvia Taylor
GSK Vaccines, Wavre, Belgium
Lisa White
Mathematical and Economics Modelling (MAEMOD) Research Group, Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit (MORU), Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand; Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
D. James Nokes
KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, KEMRI Centre for Geographic Medicine Research – Coast, Kilifi, Kenya; School of Life Sciences and Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology an Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER), University of Warwick, Coventry, UK
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of lower respiratory tract disease in children worldwide and is a significant cause of hospital admissions in young children in England. No RSV vaccine has been licensed but a number are under development. In this work, we present two structurally distinct mathematical models, parameterized using RSV data from the UK, which have been used to explore the effect of introducing an RSV paediatric vaccine to the National programme. We have explored different vaccine properties, and dosing regimens combined with a range of implementation strategies for RSV control. The results suggest that vaccine properties that confer indirect protection have the greatest effect in reducing the burden of disease in children under 5 years. The findings are reinforced by the concurrence of predictions from the two models with very different epidemiological structure. The approach described has general application in evaluating vaccine target product profiles. Keywords: RSV, Transmission model, RSV vaccination strategies, UK
