Assessing the impact of climate change and human activity on streamflow in a semiarid basin using precipitation and baseflow analysis

Abstract

Abstract Assessment of streamflow variations under the influence of climate change and human activity is crucial for sustainable water resource management, especially in semiarid areas. In this study, we first used the Hydrograph Separation Program to separate and analyze the base flow index (BFI) that was impacted directly by human activity and precipitation as an important climate factor from 1967 to 2016 in the Dez River Basin. Second, the Mann–Kendall trend test was used to identify trends and change points. Then, the elasticity coefficient method was applied to calculate the impacts of natural factors and anthropogenic activities. The results of the separation methods showed that the sliding interval method produced a better performance. Furthermore; the analyzed trend test at the annual scale showed a significant decreasing trend for runoff as well as increasing trends for the baseflow index in the four of five sub-basins of the Dez River at confidence levels of 95% and 99%, while the average precipitation in these sub-basins was not significant. Additionally, at the seasonal scale in these sub-basins, the average precipitation in winter showed a significant downward trend, while runoff showed a decreasing trend and the BFI index showed increasing trends in winter, spring and summer. The abrupt change point was determined after the change in the BFI index; the runoff was reduced. The maximum change occurred in the sub-basin tireh which after change point from 1977 to 1993,runoff reduced − 1.49% comparison with the base period( from 1967 to 1976) also elasticity estimation was − 0.46,but after change point in Baseflow index from 1994 to 2016 runoff reduced − 55.02% and elasticity estimation was − 0.65. The baseflow index trend and elasticity estimation also indicated that intensive human activities had more significant effects on the Dez Basin's hydrological processes and streamflow variation.