Time-to-event prediction analysis of patients with chronic heart failure comorbid with atrial fibrillation: a LightGBM model

Abstract

Abstract Background Chronic heart failure (CHF) comorbid with atrial fibrillation (AF) is a serious threat to human health and has become a major clinical burden. This prospective cohort study was performed to design a risk stratification system based on the light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) model to accurately predict the 1- to 3-year all-cause mortality of patients with CHF comorbid with AF. Methods Electronic medical records of hospitalized patients with CHF comorbid with AF from January 2014 to April 2019 were collected. The data set was randomly divided into a training set and test set at a 3:1 ratio. In the training set, the synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE) algorithm and fivefold cross validation were used for LightGBM model training, and the model performance was performed on the test set and compared using the logistic regression method. The survival rate was presented on a Kaplan–Meier curve and compared by a log-rank test, and the hazard ratio was calculated by a Cox proportional hazard model. Results Of the included 1796 patients, the 1-, 2-, and 3-year cumulative mortality rates were 7.74%, 10.63%, and 12.43%, respectively. Compared with the logistic regression model, the LightGBM model showed better predictive performance, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for 1-, 2-, and 3-year all-cause mortality was 0.718 (95%CI, 0.710–0.727), 0.744(95%CI, 0.737–0.751), and 0.757 (95%CI, 0.751–0.763), respectively. The net reclassification index was 0.062 (95%CI, 0.044–0.079), 0.154 (95%CI, 0.138–0.172), and 0.148 (95%CI, 0.133–0.164), respectively. The differences between the two models were statistically significant (P < 0.05). Patients in the high-risk group had a significantly higher hazard of death than those in the low-risk group (hazard ratios: 12.68, 13.13, 14.82, P < 0.05). Conclusion Risk stratification based on the LightGBM model showed better discriminative ability than traditional model in predicting 1- to 3-year all-cause mortality of patients with CHF comorbid with AF. Individual patients’ prognosis could also be obtained, and the subgroup of patients with a higher risk of mortality could be identified. It can help clinicians identify and manage high- and low-risk patients and carry out more targeted intervention measures to realize precision medicine and the optimal allocation of health care resources.

Keywords

• Chronic heart failure
• Atrial fibrillation
• Mortality prediction
• Risk stratification
• LightGBM