Short‐term photovoltaic prediction based on CNN‐GRU optimized by improved similar day extraction, decomposition noise reduction and SSA optimization

Abstract

Abstract The accuracy of short‐term photovoltaic (PV) power prediction is crucial for maintaining power system stability and grid scheduling. Here, a short‐term PV power prediction framework is proposed considering combined weather similarity day screening, signal decomposition noise reduction and hybrid deep learning to realize PV power prediction. First, a combined meteorological similar day screening model is constructed to screen out historical days similar to the day, which reduces the number of training sets; Second, Synchrosqueezing Wavelet Transform is utilized to eliminate data noise. Third, a Convolution Neural Network‐Gate Recurrent Unit (CNN‐GRU) network is constructed to extract periodic and nonlinear features in the PV power generation data series and to capture the relationship features between PV power generation and meteorological factors to improve the prediction accuracy. Fourth, the Sparrow Search Algorithm is introduced to perform hyper‐parameter optimization of the CNN‐GRU network to accelerate the model convergence and improve the model training efficiency. Finally, this paper conducts simulation experiments and the experimental results show that the prediction method proposed in this paper can effectively improve the prediction accuracy of short‐term PV power compared to the baseline model, and the method proposed in this paper is superior to other conventional methods.

Keywords

• artificial intelligence
• prediction theory
• renewable energy sources
• signal processing
• solar photovoltaic systems
• solar power stations