Meta-Analysis and Validation of a Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Model Using Deep Sequenced Fecal Metagenomes

Abstract

The gut microbiome is a potential modifiable risk factor for colorectal cancer (CRC). We re-analyzed all eight previously published stool sequencing data and conducted an MWAS meta-analysis. We used cross-validated LASSO predictive models to identify a microbiome signature for predicting the risk of CRC and precancerous lesions. These models were validated in a new study, Colorectal Cancer Screening (COLSCREEN), including 156 participants that were recruited in a CRC screening context. The MWAS meta-analysis identified 95 bacterial species that were statistically significantly associated with CRC (FDR < 0.05). The LASSO CRC predictive model obtained an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (aROC) of 0.81 (95%CI: 0.78–0.83) and the validation in the COLSCREEN dataset was 0.75 (95%CI: 0.66–0.84). This model selected a total of 32 species. The aROC of this CRC-trained model to predict precancerous lesions was 0.52 (95%CI: 0.41–0.63). We have identified a signature of 32 bacterial species that have a good predictive accuracy to identify CRC but not precancerous lesions, suggesting that the identified microbes that were enriched or depleted in CRC are merely a consequence of the tumor. Further studies should focus on CRC as well as precancerous lesions with the intent to implement a microbiome signature in CRC screening programs.

Keywords

• colorectal cancer
• microbiome
• shotgun
• metagenomics
• MWAS
• meta-analysis