Estimation of Serial Interval and Reproduction Number to Quantify the Transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant in South Korea

Abstract

The omicron variant (B.1.1.529) of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was the predominant variant in South Korea from late January 2022. In this study, we aimed to report the early estimates of the serial interval distribution and reproduction number to quantify the transmissibility of the omicron variant in South Korea between 25 November 2021 and 31 December 2021. We analyzed 427 local omicron cases and reconstructed 73 transmission pairs. We used a maximum likelihood estimation to assess serial interval distribution from transmission pair data and reproduction numbers from 74 local cases in the first local outbreak. We estimated that the mean serial interval was 3.78 (standard deviation, 0.76) days, which was significantly shorter in child infectors (3.0 days) compared to adult infectors (5.0 days) (p < 0.01). We estimated the mean reproduction number was 1.72 (95% CrI, 1.60–1.85) for the omicron variant during the first local outbreak. Strict adherence to public health measures, particularly in children, should be in place to reduce the transmission risk of the highly transmissible omicron variant in the community.

Keywords

• omicron
• transmissibility
• reproduction number
• serial interval
• coronavirus
• SARS-CoV-2