Postprandial Plasma Glucose between 4 and 7.9 h May Be a Potential Diagnostic Marker for Diabetes

Abstract

Postprandial glucose levels between 4 and 7.9 h (PPG4–7.9h) correlate with mortality from various diseases, including hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer. This study aimed to assess if predicted PPG4–7.9h could diagnose diabetes. Two groups of participants were involved: Group 1 (4420 participants) had actual PPG4–7.9h, while Group 2 (8422 participants) lacked this measure but had all the diabetes diagnostic measures. Group 1 underwent multiple linear regression to predict PPG4–7.9h using 30 predictors, achieving accuracy within 11.1 mg/dL in 80% of the participants. Group 2 had PPG4–7.9h predicted using this model. A receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that predicted PPG4–7.9h could diagnose diabetes with an accuracy of 87.3% in Group 2, with a sensitivity of 75.1% and specificity of 84.1% at the optimal cutoff of 102.5 mg/dL. A simulation on 10,000 random samples from Group 2 revealed that 175 participants may be needed to investigate PPG4–7.9h as a diabetes diagnostic marker with a power of at least 80%. In conclusion, predicted PPG4–7.9h appears to be a promising diagnostic indicator for diabetes. Future studies seeking to ascertain its definitive diagnostic value might require a minimum sample size of 175 participants.

Keywords

• postprandial
• non-fasting
• fasting
• glucose
• diabetes