The impact of climate change on the dynamics of phenological processes in the Nizhny Novgorod right bank region

Abstract

Background. In connection with climate warming at the regional and global levels, one of the topical areas in modern science is the identification of changes in climatic conditions based on the study of phenological processes. The purpose of the work is to identify the features of phenological processes under the conditions of climate change by the example of Arzamas region of the Nizhny Novgorod right riverbank. Materials and methods. Key phenological processes and phenological objects of animate and inanimate nature were selected for analysis by seasons. In the spring period, the following were recorded: the first thaws, the beginning of spring, the melting of the snow cover, the appearance of leaves on the birch (Betula pendula Roth.), the beginning of bird cherry (Prunus padus L.) blossoms, the beginning of lilac (Syringa vulgaris L.) blossoms, the last frost on the soil. During the summer period, the date of the beginning of summer was fixed and the beginning of flowering of wild rose (Rosa villosa L.) and linden (Tilia cordata Mill.) was noted. In the autumn season, the date of the onset of autumn was recorded, as well as the first frost, the first snow, the first snow cover, the end of mass leaf fall and the beginning of winter. Results. The trend of climate warming in the Nizhny Novgorod right riverank is confirmed by long-term meteorological (average monthly air temperatures and total precipitation) and phenological observations by season. Analysis of the statistical data of meteorological observations confirms that, compared with the last century: almost all months of the cold period have become significantly warmer; positive temperature records have been updated for many months; the timing of the last frost shifted from the end to the beginning of the second decade of May; as a result of warmer winters and prolonged thaws, the thickness of the snow cover has decreased by an average of 10–15 cm; the largest amount of precipitation falls not in July, but in June or August; circulation processes in the atmosphere have become more active; there was a lengthening of the duration of the warm season and, as a result of this process, an increase in the vegetation period of plants by more than one week. Conclusions. In the Nizhny Novgorod right riverbank compared to the 20th century there is a shift in phenological processes: in spring towards their earlier onset, and in autumn towards delay. This is due to changing climatic conditions. Compared to the 20th century spring began to arrive on average a week earlier, the beginning of winter is marked with a noticeable delay, and the winter season has shortened by about two weeks.

Keywords

• climate warming
• nizhny novgorod right riverbank
• arzamas region
• phenological processes