BLIGHTSIM: A New Potato Late Blight Model Simulating the Response of <i>Phytophthora infestans</i> to Diurnal Temperature and Humidity Fluctuations in Relation to Climate Change
Hossein A. Narouei-Khandan,
Shankar K. Shakya,
Karen A. Garrett,
Erica M. Goss,
Nicholas S. Dufault,
Jorge L. Andrade-Piedra,
Senthold Asseng,
Daniel Wallach,
Ariena H.C van Bruggen
Affiliations
Hossein A. Narouei-Khandan
Department of Plant Pathology, University of Florida, 1450 Fifield Hall, P.O. Box 110680, Gainesville, FL 32611-0680, USA
Shankar K. Shakya
Department of Plant Pathology, University of Florida, 1450 Fifield Hall, P.O. Box 110680, Gainesville, FL 32611-0680, USA
Karen A. Garrett
Department of Plant Pathology, University of Florida, 1450 Fifield Hall, P.O. Box 110680, Gainesville, FL 32611-0680, USA
Erica M. Goss
Department of Plant Pathology, University of Florida, 1450 Fifield Hall, P.O. Box 110680, Gainesville, FL 32611-0680, USA
Nicholas S. Dufault
Department of Plant Pathology, University of Florida, 1450 Fifield Hall, P.O. Box 110680, Gainesville, FL 32611-0680, USA
Jorge L. Andrade-Piedra
International Potato Center (CIP) and CGIAR Research Program on Roots Tubers and Bananas (RTB), P.O. Box 1558, Lima 12, Peru
Senthold Asseng
Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Florida, 224 Frazier Rogers Hall, P.O. Box 110570, Gainesville, FL 32611-0570, USA
Daniel Wallach
Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), UMR AGIR, BP 52627, 31326 Castanet Tolosan Cedex, France
Ariena H.C van Bruggen
Department of Plant Pathology, University of Florida, 1450 Fifield Hall, P.O. Box 110680, Gainesville, FL 32611-0680, USA
Temperature response curves under diurnal oscillating temperatures differ from those under constant conditions for all stages of the Phytophthora infestans infection cycle on potatoes. We developed a mechanistic model (BLIGHTSIM) with an hourly time step to simulate late blight under fluctuating environmental conditions and predict late blight epidemics in potato fields. BLIGHTSIM is a modified susceptible (S), latent (L), infectious (I) and removed (R) compartmental model with hourly temperature and relative humidity as driving variables. The model was calibrated with growth chamber data covering one infection cycle and validated with field data from Ecuador. The model provided a good fit to all data sets evaluated. There was a significant interaction between average temperature and amplitude in their effects on the area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC) as predicted from growth chamber data on a single infection cycle. BLIGHTSIM can be incorporated in a potato growth model to study effects of diurnal temperature range on late blight impact under climate change scenarios.
