Sample Size of One: Operational Qualitative Analysis in the Classroom

Abstract

Qualitative analysis has two extraordinary capabilities: first, finding answers to questions we are too clueless to ask; and second, causal inference – hypothesis testing and assessment – within a single unique context (sample size of one). These capabilities are broadly useful, and they are critically important in village-level civil-military operations. Company commanders need to learn quickly, "What are the problems and possibilities here and now, in this specific village? What happens if we do A, B, and C?" – and that is an ill-defined, one-of-a-kind problem. The U.S. Army's Eighty-Third Civil Affairs Battalion is our "first user" innovation partner in a new project to adapt qualitative research methods to an operational tempo and purpose. Our aim is to develop a simple, low-cost methodology and training program for local civil-military operations conducted by non-specialist conventional forces. Complementary to that, this paper focuses on some essential basics that can be implemented by college professors without significant cost, effort, or disruption.

Keywords

• Intelligence analysis
• Methodology