Contagion effect of migration fear in pre and European refugee’s crisis period: evidence from multivariate GARCH and wavelet empirical analysis

Abstract

Abstract To test the contagion effect of fear migration between countries, and to show its causality direction, our paper contributes to the economic literature by providing a new study based on migration fear indices quarterly data of France, Germany, United Kingdom and United States spanning period 1990–2019. Our empirical strategy is based on dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model and continuous wavelet transform analysis. Our results show a significant contagion effect of fear migration between the selected countries in pre and at the European Refugees crisis. The main findings of this work are changes level of conditional correlation in the two subsample periods, and changes in the arrow’s directions in red space of the phase difference between each two fear migration series. These findings indicate that European Refugees crisis changes the relationship between European Union countries and USA, and the Brexit changes the European people behavior towards migrants and refugees. Our findings offer a new directions and tracks in the international relations to the policy makers, moreover it calls into question the various studies examining economic interdependence and the contagion effect of financial crises and policies events on the different markets.

Keywords

• Fear migration
• Contagion effect
• Causality direction
• European Refugees crisis
• DCC-GARCH
• Continuous wavelet transform