Change in Extreme Precipitation over North Korea Using Multiple Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract

Although the magnitude and frequency of extreme events on the global scale are expected to change because of changes in the hydrological cycle under climate change, little quantitative assessment of future extreme precipitation in North Korea has been attempted. Therefore, this study projected the changes in extreme precipitation in North Korea by applying downscaling to GCMs forced by Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) Scenarios 4.5 and 8.5, preserving the long-term trend of climate change projection. Employing climate change scenario ensembles of RCP8.5, the precipitation level of the 20-year return period in the reference period of 1980–2005 increased to 21.1 years for the future period 2011–2040, decreased to 16.2 years for 2041–2070, and decreased to 8.8 years for 2071–2100. Extreme precipitation was expected to occur often in the future. In addition, an increase in extreme precipitation at the border of North and South Korea is expected, and it is concluded that a joint response for the Imjin River, a river shared by North and South Korea, is needed.

Keywords

• extreme precipitation
• North Korea
• climate change
• CMIP5
• return period