Stability and Optimal Control of a Fractional SEQIR Epidemic Model with Saturated Incidence Rate

Abstract

The fractional differential equation has a memory property and is suitable for biomathematical modeling. In this paper, a fractional SEQIR epidemic model with saturated incidence and vaccination is constructed. Firstly, for the deterministic fractional system, the threshold conditions for the local and global asymptotic stability of the equilibrium point are obtained by using the stability theory of the fractional differential equation. If R01, the disease-free equilibrium is asymptotically stable, and the disease is extinct; when R0>1, the endemic equilibrium is asymptotically stable and the disease persists. Secondly, for the stochastic system of integer order, the stochastic stability near the positive equilibrium point is discussed. The results show that if the intensity of environmental noise is small enough, the system is stochastic stable, and the disease will persist. Thirdly, the control variables are coupled into the fractional differential equation to obtain the fractional control system, the objective function is constructed, and the optimal control solution is obtained by using the maximum principle. Finally, the correctness of the theoretical derivation is verified by numerical simulation.

Keywords

• fractional model
• saturation incidence rate
• basic reproduction number
• global stability
• optimal control