Drought risk assessment of farmers considering their planting behaviors and awareness: A case study of a County from China

Abstract

The increase in the frequency, scale, and intensity of drought disasters due to climate change will have a substantial impact on agricultural production activities. Farmers are some of the main victims of drought disasters, and their planting behavior and awareness will affect the regional drought risk level to varying extents. In this study, crop sensitivity under the influence of planting behavior and the subjective adaptability of farmers under the influence of disaster prevention awareness were analyzed. The aim was to assess the vulnerability of farmers to drought and build a risk assessment framework. The results suggested that (1) drought intensity in the southern towns of Xinghe County was relatively high, especially in Dianzi (DZZ), Zhanggao (ZGZ), and the eastern regions of Datongyao (DTY) and Chengguan (CGZ); (2) among the common crops in Xinghe County, the average water demand of naked oats had the highest correlation with precipitation (r, 0.74), suggesting that naked oats would help ensure relatively stable crop yields under drought conditions; (3) the drought vulnerability of Xinghe County tended to decrease from southeast to northwest, with Datongyao (DTY) and Dianzi (DZZ) suffering from the highest drought vulnerability; (4) the drought risk for Xinghe County showed a pattern of high in the South and low in the North. Among them, Saiwusu (SWS) and Datongyao (DTY) were the towns with the lowest and highest drought risk at 60.98% and 52.10%, respectively. With the impact of climate change, the SPI in most areas of Xinghe County indicated a downward trend (MK trend test, p < 0.05). The results suggest that drought risk and farmer vulnerability in this area will increase in the future.

Keywords

• Agricultural drought
• Risk assessment
• Vulnerability
• Crop sensitivity
• Subjective adaptability