Relationship among macroeconomic factors and stock prices: cointegration approach from the Indian stock market

Abstract

The performance of a stock market is intrinsically linked to the broader financial and economic landscape of a country. Stock prices, as integral indicators, not only mirror the financial health and collective economic circumstances of a nation but also serve as crucial barometers of tangible financial activities. This research paper aims to undertake a comprehensive exploration of the intricate relationship between specific macroeconomic determinants and the stock market within the context of India. Moreover, this study conducts an exhaustive analysis to assess the relative significance of these variables and their contributions to the predictive capacity of stock prices. This investigation harnesses a dataset consisting of monthly observations of the chosen macroeconomic variables. The outcomes of the cointegration analysis illuminate a robust and statistically significant long-term association between Indian stock prices and the selected macroeconomic factors. The results of the cointegration test affirm a lasting nexus between stock returns and crucial economic indicators, namely Gross Domestic Product (GDP), disposable income, and the participation of Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) in the market. Furthermore, this study underscores the enduring negative relationship between stock returns and factors, such as interest rates, government policies, exchange rates, and inflation. These findings provide valuable insights into the interplay between the stock market and macroeconomic forces in the Indian context.

Keywords

• Disposable income
• economic growth (GDP)
• exchange rates
• FII
• government policies
• interest rate