COVID-19 in Ethiopia: a geospatial analysis of vulnerability to infection, case severity and death
Hailay Gesesew,
Kefyalew Addis Alene,
Akilew Awoke Adane,
Berihun Assefa Dachew,
Asnakew Achaw Ayele,
Henok Getachew Tegegn,
Yohannes Kinfu,
Yohannes Adama Melaku,
Mulugeta Molla Birhanu,
Hassen Mohammed,
Yalemzewod Assefa Gelaw,
Dagnachew Muluye Fetene,
Digsu N. Koye,
Muluken Dessalegn Muluneh,
Solomon Abrha,
Atsede Aregay,
Woldesellassie M Bezabhe,
Kidane Tadesse Gebremariam,
Tesfaye Gebremedhin,
Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin,
Lemlem Gebremichael,
Ayele Bali Geleto,
Habtamu Tilahun Kassahun,
Getiye Dejenu Kibret,
Cheru Tesema Leshargie,
Alemayehu Mekonnen,
Alemnesh H. Mirkuzie,
Azeb Gebresilassie Tesema,
Fisaha Haile Tesfay,
Befikadu Legesse Wubishet
Affiliations
Hailay Gesesew
Public Health, Flinders University, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
Kefyalew Addis Alene
Geospatial and Tuberculosis Research Team, Telethon Kids Institute, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
Akilew Awoke Adane
1 Institute of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
Berihun Assefa Dachew
School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
Asnakew Achaw Ayele
Department of clinical pharmacy, School of Pharmacy, College of Medicineand Health Science, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
Henok Getachew Tegegn
Department of clinical pharmacy, School of Pharmacy, College of Medicineand Health Science, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
Yohannes Kinfu
3 University of Canberra, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
Yohannes Adama Melaku
1 Adelaide Institute for Sleep Health, College of Medicine and Public Health, Flinders University, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
Mulugeta Molla Birhanu
Department of Medicine, School of Clinical Sciences at Monash Health, Faculty of Medicine, Nursing, and Health Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
Hassen Mohammed
37 Vaccinology and Immunology Research Trials Unit, Women’s and Children’s Health Network, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
Yalemzewod Assefa Gelaw
5 Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Institute of Public Health, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
Dagnachew Muluye Fetene
Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
Digsu N. Koye
Department of Medicine at Royal Melbourne Hospital and Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
Muluken Dessalegn Muluneh
Western Sydney University, Penrith South, New South Wales, Australia
Solomon Abrha
Faculty of Health, University of Canberra, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
Atsede Aregay
Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
Woldesellassie M Bezabhe
14 Faculty of Health, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
Kidane Tadesse Gebremariam
7 School of Public Health, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia
Tesfaye Gebremedhin
University of Canberra, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia
Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin
Wesfarmers Centre of Vaccines and Infectious Diseases, Telethon Kids Institute, Nedlands, Western Australia, Australia
Lemlem Gebremichael
Caring Futures Institute, College of Nursing and Health Sciences, Flinders University, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
Ayele Bali Geleto
Haramaya University, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia
Habtamu Tilahun Kassahun
Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith University, Nathan, Queensland, Australia
Getiye Dejenu Kibret
28 Public Health, Debre Markos University, Debre Markos, Ethiopia
Cheru Tesema Leshargie
Department of Public Health, College of Health Science, Debre Markos University, Debre Markos, Amhara, Ethiopia
Alemayehu Mekonnen
33 Centre for Quality and Patient Safety Research, School of Nursing and Midwifery, Institute for Health Transformation, Deakin University, Burwood, VIC, Australia
Alemnesh H. Mirkuzie
35 Ethiopian Public Health Institute, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Azeb Gebresilassie Tesema
The George Institute for Global Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of New South Wales (UNSW), Sydney, NSW, Australia
Fisaha Haile Tesfay
School of Public Health, Mekelle University, Mekelle University College of Health Sciences, Mekelle, Ethiopia
Befikadu Legesse Wubishet
School of Pharmacy, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia
Background COVID-19 has caused a global public health crisis affecting most countries, including Ethiopia, in various ways. This study maps the vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death from COVID-19 in Ethiopia.Methods Thirty-eight potential indicators of vulnerability to COVID-19 infection, case severity and likelihood of death, identified based on a literature review and the availability of nationally representative data at a low geographic scale, were assembled from multiple sources for geospatial analysis. Geospatial analysis techniques were applied to produce maps showing the vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death in Ethiopia at a spatial resolution of 1 km×1 km.Results This study showed that vulnerability to COVID-19 infection is likely to be high across most parts of Ethiopia, particularly in the Somali, Afar, Amhara, Oromia and Tigray regions. The number of severe cases of COVID-19 infection requiring hospitalisation and intensive care unit admission is likely to be high across Amhara, most parts of Oromia and some parts of the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples’ Region. The risk of COVID-19-related death is high in the country’s border regions, where public health preparedness for responding to COVID-19 is limited.Conclusion This study revealed geographical differences in vulnerability to infection, case severity and likelihood of death from COVID-19 in Ethiopia. The study offers maps that can guide the targeted interventions necessary to contain the spread of COVID-19 in Ethiopia.
