Comparative Analysis of Women’s Breast Cancer Survival Time at Three Selected Government Referral Hospitals in Ethiopia’s Amhara Region Using Parametric Shared Frailty Models

Abstract

Seid Fentaw,1 Anteneh Asmare Godana,2 Dawit Abathun,2 Dessie Melese Chekole2,3 1Department of Statistics, College of Natural and Computational Sciences, Wollo University, Dessie, Ethiopia; 2Department of Statistics, College of Natural and Computational Sciences, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia; 3Management and Healthcare Laboratory, Institute of Management and Department EMbeDS, Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies, Piazza Martiri della Libertà 33, Pisa, 56127 ItalyCorrespondence: Dessie Melese Chekole, Management and Healthcare Laboratory, Institute of Management and Department EMbeDS, Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies, Piazza Martiri della Libertà 33, Pisa, 56127, Italy, Email [email protected]; [email protected]: One in five people will eventually develop cancer, and one in eleven women will lose their lives to the disease. The main aim of this study is to determinants of survival time of women with breast cancer using appropriate Frailty models.Methods: A study involving 632 Ethiopian women with breast cancer was conducted between 2018 and 2020, utilizing medical records from Felege-Hiwot Referral Hospital, the University of Gondar, and Dessie Referral Hospital. To compare survival, the Kaplan-Meier plot (s) and Log rank test were employed; to assess mean survival, one-way analysis of variance and the t test were utilized. The factors influencing women’s survival times from breast cancer were identified using the parametric shared frailty model and the accelerated failure time model.Results: The median time to die for breast cancer patients treated at FHRH, UoGCSH, and DRH was 14.91 months, 11.14 months, and 12.32 months, respectively. The parametric model of shared frailty fit those who were statistically significant in univariate analysis. The results showed that survival of women with breast cancer was significantly influenced by age, tumor size, comorbidity, nodal status, stage, histologic grade, and type of primary treatment initiated. When comparing mean survival times between hospitals, the results showed a significant difference; patients who were treated in FHRH live significantly longer than patients treated in UoGCSH and DRH, whereas patients treated in UoGCSH have comparatively lower survival. Women with stage IV and comorbidities have 22.4% and 27.1% shorter expected survival, respectively.Conclusion: This finding suggests that improving the availability and accessibility of radiation therapy and surgery, eliminating disparities between hospitals, raising awareness of early signs and symptoms of breast cancer and encouraging women to seek clinical help, and highlighting women with comorbidities at diagnosis are important ways to increase survival time.Keywords: survival time, lognormal-inverse Gaussian model, women breast cancer

Keywords

• survival time
• lognormal-inverse gaussian model
• women breast cancer