Local Effects from the Monetary Policy Globalization

Abstract

Most central banks of developed countries realize the “quantitative easing” (QE) monetary policy that allows us to speak about globalization as for monetary policy, as for this policy effects. We identified some positive and negative effects from the QE policy for the US economy (as the issuing country) and for Ukraine (as a country that accept of this policy effects on local level) that can be taking into account when national economy economic planning. At the base of author’s CMI-model of macroeconomic dynamics we proposed possible explanation for this monetary policy effects for the US economy that have no satisfied explanation within well-known models: 1) comparatively low economic growth rate under the QE monetary policy; 2) phenomenon of low inflation under sharp rising of money supply as a result of the QE policy; 3) phenomenon of record employment under comparatively small economic growth rate. Also we identified some other effects of the QE monetary policy that can be explained within well-known models. There are the following ones: negative interest rates for bonds market, the US dollar weakening on FOREX market, price rising for gold and various digital assets. We proposed some possible ways to use global effects from the QE monetary policy to benefit Ukrainian economy. For example, we proposed to change the structure of part of the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) in order to increase its value, actually, under the risk-free way. We can use periods of the US economy stimulus provided by Federal Reserve Bank to increase part of gold in the reserves with corresponding decreasing of foreign exchange part. When the stimulus will be stopped, we proposed to decrease part of gold with corresponding increasing of foreign exchange part. Conclusions, tied with impact of the cumulative market imperfections value (ΔР) on economic growth rate obtained for the US economy, are valid and for Ukrainian economy, because, beforehand, we proved the validity of our CMI-model for national economy, too.

Keywords

• monetary policy
• growth rate
• inflation
• employment
• financial indexes
• neutral money