Atmospheric motion vector (AMV) error characterization and bias correction by leveraging independent lidar data: a simulation using an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) and optical flow AMVs

Abstract

Accurate estimation of global winds is crucial for various scientific and practical applications, such as global chemical transport modeling and numerical weather prediction. One valuable source of wind measurements is atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs), which play a vital role in the global observing system and numerical weather prediction models. However, errors in AMV retrievals need to be addressed before their assimilation into data assimilation systems, as they can affect the accuracy of outputs. An assessment of the bias and uncertainty in passive-sensor AMVs can be done by comparing them with information from independent sources such as active-sensor winds. In this paper, we examine the benefit and performance of a colocation scheme using independent and sparse lidar wind observations as a dependent variable in a supervised machine learning model. We demonstrate the feasibility and performance of this approach in an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework, with reference geophysical state data obtained from high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations of three different weather events. Lidar wind data are typically available in only one direction, and our study demonstrates that this single component of wind in high-precision active-sensor data can be leveraged (via a machine learning algorithm to model the conditional mean) to reduce the bias in the passive-sensor winds. Further, this active-sensor wind information can be leveraged through an algorithm that models the conditional quantiles to produce stable estimates of the prediction intervals, which are helpful in the design and application of error analysis, such as quality filters.