中国油料油脂进口依赖性风险分析 及进口多元化策略Import dependence risk analysis and import diversification strategy of China′s oilseed and oil

Abstract

在中美贸易摩擦不断以及俄乌冲突激化的背景下，保障油料油脂进口稳定对中国食用油供给安全有着重要意义。运用进口依赖性风险指标、进口安全度评价模型以及出口产出弹性对中国油料油脂进口进行综合评价，从而对中国油料油脂的进口进行全面分析，为进口多元化寻找可行路径。结果表明：中国油料油脂存在进口依赖风险，棕榈油、大豆、葵花籽油进口安全度最低，风险主要来自印度尼西亚、巴西、乌克兰等国；结合出口产出弹性，提出中国油料油脂进口多元化的可行策略为增加乌克兰、加拿大、巴拉圭的大豆，乌克兰、澳大利亚的油菜籽，印度、阿根廷的花生，俄罗斯的大豆油，哥伦比亚、洪都拉斯、泰国的棕榈油，土耳其的葵花籽油等油料油脂的进口。通过实施油料油脂进口多元化策略，提高国内产量、构建双循环格局及积极引导居民油脂消费结构转型等策略提高中国油料油脂的进口安全水平。Against the background of the continuous trade friction between China and the United States and the intensification of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, ensuring the stability of oilseed and oil imports is of great significance to the security of China′s edible oil supply. The import dependence index, import safety evaluation model and export output elasticity were used to comprehensively evaluate China′s oilseed and oil imports.Thus, China′s oilseed and oil imports were comprehensively analyzed to seek a feasible path for import diversification.The results showed that China′s oilseed and oil had the risk of import dependence, and the lowest import safety exists among palm oil, soybean and sunflower seed oil, and the risks mainly came from Indonesia, Brazil, Ukraine. Combined with the export output elasticity, a feasible strategy for import diversification was to increase imports of soybean from Ukraine, Canada and Paraguay, rapeseed from Ukraine and Australia, peanut from India and Argentina, soybean oil from Russia, palm oil from Colombia, Honduras and Thailand, sunflower seed oil from Turkey. The level of China′s import security of oilseed and oil could be improved through the implementing the imports diversification strategy of oilseed and oil, increasing domestic production, building a double-cycle pattern and actively guiding the structural transformation of residents′ oil consumption.

Keywords

• 油料油脂；依赖性风险；进口多元化
• oilseed and oil; dependence risk; import diversification