A Game Dynamic Modeling Framework to Understand the Influence of Human Choice to Vaccinate or to Reduce Contact with Mosquitoes on Dengue Transmission Dynamics

Abstract

Strategies for reducing dengue incidence are by minimizing the contact between mosquitoes and human or the use of vaccine. However, the candidate of dengue is not perfect and potentially results in more secondary infection cases.This leads to the question which strategy should be decided by individuals to reduce the chance for being infected by dengue. A game-dynamic modeling framework by coupling epidemic and behavior model has been constructed to study the effects of human decision making behavior on dengue transmission dynamics. We also consider strategies as time-dependent controls and estimate the parameter values against data of dengue incidence in Kupang city, Indonesia. Parameter estimation gives the reproduction number of 1.17 which indicates the possibility of outbreak occurrence. When the efficacy of reduced contact with mosquitoes is low, the use of vaccination is the best option to reduce dengue incidence. The efficacy of reduced contact with mosquitoes should be at high level to get higher reduction in dengue incidence if no vaccine is available yet. An optimal control approach suggests that a higher level of vaccination rate and the reduced contact with mosquitoes is required to reach optimal reduction in dengue incidence. However, solutions from epidemiological-behavior model showed that individuals are likely to choose one strategy only which has higher cost and the probability of perceived efficacy. The implementation of vaccination helps in reducing dengue incidence. However, understanding the effects of dengue vaccine on secondary infections is required before the delivery of such intervention.

Keywords

• dengue
• vaccination
• game dynamics
• contact with mosquitoes
• reproduction number