Development and validation of a scoring system for predicting cancer patients at risk of extended-spectrum b-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae infections

Abstract

Abstract Background Extended-spectrum beta-lactamase producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-PE) infections are frequent and highly impact cancer patients. We developed and validated a scoring system to identify cancer patients harboring ESBL-PE at the National Institute of Cancer of Colombia. Methods We retrospectively analyzed medical records of 1695 cancer patients. Derivation phase included 710 patients admitted between 2013 to 2015, ESBL-PE positive culture (n = 265) paired by month and hospitalization ward with Non-ESBL-PE (n = 445). A crude and weighted score was developed by conditional logistic regression. The model was evaluated in a Validation cohort (n = 985) with the same eligibility criteria between 2016 to 2017. Results The score was based on eight variables (reported with Odds Ratio and 95% confidence interval): Hospitalization ≥7 days (5.39 [2.46–11.80]), Hospitalization during the previous year (4, 87 [2.99–7.93]), immunosuppressive therapy during the previous 3 months (2.97 [1.44–6.08]), Neutropenia (1.90 [1.12–3.24]), Exposure to Betalactams during previous month (1.61 [1.06–2.42]), Invasive devices (1.51 [1.012–2.25]), Neoplasia in remission (2.78 [1.25–1.17]), No chemotherapy during the previous 3 months (1.90 [1.22–2.97]). The model demonstrated an acceptable discriminatory capacity in the Derivation phase, but poor in the Validation phase (Recipient Operating Characteristic Curve: 0.68 and 0.55 respectively). Conclusions Cancer patients have a high prevalence of risk factors for ESBL-PE infection. The scoring system did not adequately discriminate patients with ESBL-PE. In a high-risk population, other strategies should be sought to identify patients at risk of resistant ESBL-PE infection.

Keywords

• Beta-lactamases
• Extended-spectrum β-lactamase producing Enterobacteriaceae
• Cancer
• Prediction
• Risk stratification