New Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Model for Nepal Himalayas by Integrating Distributed Seismicity and Major Thrust Faults

Abstract

Nepal is one of the most seismically active regions in the world, as highlighted by the recent devastating 2015, Mw~7.8 Gorkha earthquake, and a robust assessment of seismic hazard is paramount for the design of earthquake-resistant structures. In this study, we present a new probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for Nepal. We considered data and findings from recent scientific publications, which allowed us to develop a unified magnitude homogenized seismicity catalog and propose alternative seismic source characterization (SSC) models including up-to-date parameters of major thrust faults like main frontal thrust (MFT) and main boundary thrust (MBT), while also considering existing SSC models and various seismic hazard modeling strategies within a logic tree framework. The sensitivity analyses show the seismic hazard levels are generally higher for SSC models integrating the major thrust faults, followed by homogenous volume sources and smoothed seismicity approach. The seismic hazard maps covering the entirety of Nepal are presented as well as the uniform hazard spectra (UHS) for five selected locations (Kathmandu, Pokhara, Biratnagar, Nepalganj, and Dipayal) at return periods of 475- and 2475-years considering Vs,30 = 760 m/s. The results obtained are generally consistent with most recent studies. However, a notable variability in seismic hazard levels and several discrepancies with respect to the Nepal Building Building Code NBC105: 2020 and global hazard model, GEM are noted, and possible causes are discussed.

Keywords

• probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA)
• seismic source characterization
• seismogenic models
• Nepal Himalayas