A system dynamic road transport modal mix emission analysis and prediction

Abstract

Greenhouse gas emissions are directly linked with fossil fuel-based transport vehicles and vary among individual modes of transport. The modal mix generates scenarios that support environmental sustainability by contributing to countries’ emission reduction targets. Twelve land transport modes using petrol, diesel, and gas as fuel are analyzed in this study for their on-road activity specific to the northern Punjab region of Pakistan. A region-specific scenario on a business-as-usual basis is analyzed for its modal mix emission projection for the coming decade. The study uses a system dynamic model to explore the “travel distance-energy utilized,” correlating it with greenhouse gas emissions with an R-square value of 0.9998. Scenario-based combinations are created with a target to achieve carbon reduction by enhancing, constraining, and trading off modes with the potential to meet nationally determined targets; in a scenario of the study, a 16% carbon reduction in the year 2035 is projected. Multiple scenarios can be created to suggest reductions, low-carbon policy strategies concerning modal choices, and long-term or short-term synergetic measures. In this study, modal trade-off combinations prove the potential to generate decarbonization through policy measures of controlling modal vehicle numbers that can further be supported by abatement strategies and techniques to boost the impact.

Keywords

• System dynamic model
• Greenhouse gas
• Road transport
• Modal mix
• Climate change
• Microsimulation models