Trend analysis of long-term rainfall

Abstract

In the Pampas Region in the southwest of the State of Rio Grande do Sul, there are areas that show fragility in relation to soil and climatic characteristics. The sandy areas of this region have attracted special attention in the recent decades due to historical, socio economic and environmental issues. An increase in the amount of sand, or “sandization”, occurred due to natural phenomena such as rainfall and wind. Therefore, the sandization process could be influenced by an increase of precipitation in the area. The goal of this work was to analyze precipitation during different time periods in Alegrete, Rio Grande do Sul, from 1928 to 2009 in order to identify evidence of changes in rainfall behavior. Rainfall data from the Brazilian National Water Agency (Portuguese acronym ANA) provided by the system hidroweb (http://hidroweb.ana.gov.br) were analyzed. After the data were organized on total monthly, trimestral and annual values, they were analyzed for their linear trend over time. The Mann-Kendall test was used to quantitatively evaluate positive and negative trends; however, the data did not provide evidence of climatic changes, but rather of normal random weather events during the time period studied.

Keywords

• Sandization
• rainfall
• southwest of Rio Grande do Sul
• Mann-Kendall