How Did Zika Virus Emerge in the Pacific Islands and Latin America?
John H.-O. Pettersson,
Vegard Eldholm,
Stephen J. Seligman,
Åke Lundkvist,
Andrew K. Falconar,
Michael W. Gaunt,
Didier Musso,
Antoine Nougairède,
Remi Charrel,
Ernest A. Gould,
Xavier de Lamballerie
Affiliations
John H.-O. Pettersson
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Modelling/Molecular Biology, Domain for Infection Control and Environmental Health, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
Vegard Eldholm
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Modelling/Molecular Biology, Domain for Infection Control and Environmental Health, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
Stephen J. Seligman
St. Giles Laboratory of Human Genetics of Infectious Diseases, The Rockefeller University, New York, New York, USA
Åke Lundkvist
Department of Medical Biochemistry and Microbiology (IMBIM), Zoonosis Science Center, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
Andrew K. Falconar
Departmento de Medicina, Universidad del Norte, Barranquilla, Colombia
Michael W. Gaunt
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
Didier Musso
Pôle de Recherche et de Veille sur les Maladies Infectieuses Émergentes, Institut Louis Malardé, Tahiti, French Polynesia
Antoine Nougairède
UMR Emergence des Pathologies Virales (EPV: Aix-Marseille Université-IRD 190-INSERM 1207-EHESP), Marseille, France
Remi Charrel
UMR Emergence des Pathologies Virales (EPV: Aix-Marseille Université-IRD 190-INSERM 1207-EHESP), Marseille, France
Ernest A. Gould
UMR Emergence des Pathologies Virales (EPV: Aix-Marseille Université-IRD 190-INSERM 1207-EHESP), Marseille, France
Xavier de Lamballerie
UMR Emergence des Pathologies Virales (EPV: Aix-Marseille Université-IRD 190-INSERM 1207-EHESP), Marseille, France
ABSTRACT The unexpected emergence of Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Pacific Islands and Latin America and its association with congenital Zika virus syndrome (CZVS) (which includes microcephaly) and Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) have stimulated wide-ranging research. High densities of susceptible Aedes spp., immunologically naive human populations, global population growth with increased urbanization, and escalation of global transportation of humans and commercial goods carrying vectors and ZIKV undoubtedly enhanced the emergence of ZIKV. However, flavivirus mutations accumulate with time, increasing the likelihood that genetic viral differences are determinants of change in viral phenotype. Based on comparative ZIKV complete genome phylogenetic analyses and temporal estimates, we identify amino acid substitutions that may be associated with increased viral epidemicity, CZVS, and GBS. Reverse genetics, vector competence, and seroepidemiological studies will test our hypothesis that these amino acid substitutions are determinants of epidemic and neurotropic ZIKV emergence.
