Remaining Useful Life Prediction for Power Storage Electronic Components Based on Fractional Weibull Process and Shock Poisson Model

Abstract

For lithium-ion batteries and supercapacitors in hybrid power storage facilities, both steady degradation and random shock contribute to their failure. To this end, in this paper, we propose to introduce the degradation-threshold-shock (DTS) model for their remaining useful life (RUL) prediction. Non-homogeneous compound Poisson process (NHCP) is proposed to simulate the shock effect in the DTS model. Considering the long-range dependence and heavy-tailed characteristics of the degradation process, fractional Weibull process (fWp) is employed in the diffusion term of the stochastic degradation model. Furthermore, the drift and diffusion coefficients are constantly updated to describe the environmental interference. Prior to the model training, steady degradation and shock data must be separated, based on the three-sigma principle. Degradation data for the lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) and ultracapacitors are employed for model verification under different operation protocols in the power system. Recent deep learning models and stochastic process-based methods are utilized for model comparison, and the proposed model shows higher prediction accuracy.

Keywords

• hybrid energy storage system
• lithium-ion batteries
• supercapacitor
• remaining useful life prediction
• fractional Weibull process
• non-homogeneous compound Poisson process