Robust simulation optimization using φ-divergence

Abstract

We introduce a new robust simulation optimization method in which the probability of occurrence of uncertain parameters is considered. It is assumed that the probability distributions are unknown but historical data are on hand and using φ-divergence functionality the uncertainty region for the uncertain probability vector is defined. We propose two approaches to formulate the robust counterpart problem for the objective function estimated by Kriging. The first method is a minimax problem and the second method is based on the chance constraint definition. To illustrate the methods and assess their performance, numerical experiments are conducted. Results show that the second method obtains better robust solutions with less simulation runs.

Keywords

• Simulation optimization
• Kriging metamodel
• Robust optimization
• φ-divergence