Dynamics for a Nonlinear Stochastic Cholera Epidemic Model under Lévy Noise

Abstract

In this study, we develop a comprehensive mathematical model to analyze the dynamics of epidemic cholera, characterized by acute diarrhea due to pathogen overabundance in the human body. The model is first developed from a deterministic point of view, and then it is modified to include the randomness by stochastic differential equations. The study selected Lévy noise above other well-known types of noise, emphasizing its importance in epidemic modeling. Besides presenting a biological justification for the stochastic system, we demonstrate that the equivalent deterministic model exhibits possible equilibria. The introduction is followed by theoretical analysis of the model. Through rigorous analysis, we establish that the stochastic model ensures a unique global solution. Lyapunov function theory is applied to construct necessary conditions, which on average, guarantee the model’s stability for R0s>1. Our findings suggest the likelihood of eradicating the disease when Rs is below one, a significant insight supported by graphical simulations of the model. Graphical illustrations were generated from simulating the model in order to increase the analytical results’ robustness. This work provides a strong theoretical framework for a thorough comprehension of a range of such diseases. This research not only provides a deeper understanding of cholera dynamics but also offers a robust theoretical framework applicable to a range of similar diseases, alongside a novel approach for constructing Lyapunov functions for nonlinear models with random disturbances.

Keywords

• Lévy noise
• threshold
• extinction
• persistence
• numerical simulation