Link Prediction in Time-Evolving Criminal Network With Deep Reinforcement Learning Technique

Abstract

The prediction of hidden or missing links in a criminal network, which represent possible interactions between individuals, is a significant problem. The criminal network prediction models commonly rely on Social Network Analysis (SNA) metrics. These models leverage on machine learning (ML) techniques to enhance the predictive accuracy of the models and processing speed. The problem with the use of classical ML techniques such as support vector machine (SVM), is the dependency on the availability of large dataset for training purpose. However, recent ground breaking advances in the research of deep reinforcement learning (DRL) techniques have developed methods of training ML models through self-generated dataset. In view of this, DRL could be applied to other domains with relatively smaller dataset such as criminal networks. Prior to this research, few, if any, previous works have explored the prediction of links within criminal networks that could appear and/or disappear over time by leveraging on DRL technique. Therefore, in this paper, the primary objective is to construct a time-based link prediction model (TDRL) by leveraging on DRL technique to train using a relatively small real-world criminal dataset that evolves over time. The experimental results indicate that the predictive accuracy of the DRL model trained on the temporal dataset is significantly better than other ML models that are trained only with the dataset at specific snapshot in time.

Keywords

• Social network analysis
• link prediction performance
• deep reinforcement learning
• time-evolving network