Options to accelerate ozone recovery: ozone and climate benefits

Abstract

Hypothetical reductions in future emissions of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and N₂O are evaluated in terms of effects on equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC), globally-averaged total column ozone, and radiative forcing through 2100. Due to the established success of the Montreal Protocol, these actions can have only a fraction of the impact on ozone depletion that regulations already in force have had. If all anthropogenic ODS and N₂O emissions were halted beginning in 2011, ozone is calculated to be higher by about 1–2% during the period 2030–2100 compared to a case of no additional restrictions. Direct radiative forcing by 2100 would be about 0.23 W/m² lower from the elimination of anthropogenic N₂O emissions and about 0.005 W/m² lower from the destruction of the chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) bank. Due to the potential impact of N₂O on future ozone levels, we provide an approach to incorporate it into the EESC formulation, which is used extensively in ozone depletion analyses. The ability of EESC to describe total ozone changes arising from additional ODS and N₂O controls is also quantified.