An improved SIR model describing the epidemic dynamics of the COVID-19 in China

Abstract

In this letter, an improved SIR (ISIR) model is proposed, to analyze the spread of COVID-19 during the time window 21/01/2020–08/02/2021. The parameters can be extracted from an inverse problem of the ISIR to assess the risk of COVID-19. This study identifies that the cure rate is 0.05 and the reproduction number is 0.4490 during the time interval. The prediction values demonstrates high similarity to the reported data. The results indicate that the disease had been under control in China.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• Dynamic epidemic model
• Reproduction number
• SIR model
• Inverse problem