Maximizing the environmental benefits of gas power development in China: A multidisciplinary modeling approach
Yan Chen,
Michael Davidson,
Yu Liu,
Dachuan Liu,
Huawei Zhang,
Chaozi Wang,
Xinyu Fan,
Muzhen Ren,
Pu Wang
Affiliations
Yan Chen
Beijing Institute of Technology, School of Economics, Beijing 100081, China; Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.15 Zhongguancun Beiyitiao Alley, Haidian District, Beijing 100190, China
Michael Davidson
School of Global Policy and Strategy and Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University of California, San Diego, San Diego 92093, United States
Yu Liu
College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China; Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
Dachuan Liu
Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.15 Zhongguancun Beiyitiao Alley, Haidian District, Beijing 100190, China; School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 19 A Yuquan Rd, Shijingshan District, Beijing 100049, China
Huawei Zhang
Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.15 Zhongguancun Beiyitiao Alley, Haidian District, Beijing 100190, China; School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 19 A Yuquan Rd, Shijingshan District, Beijing 100049, China
Chaozi Wang
College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China
Xinyu Fan
Beijing Institute of Technology, School of Economics, Beijing 100081, China
Muzhen Ren
Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.15 Zhongguancun Beiyitiao Alley, Haidian District, Beijing 100190, China; School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 19 A Yuquan Rd, Shijingshan District, Beijing 100049, China
Pu Wang
Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.15 Zhongguancun Beiyitiao Alley, Haidian District, Beijing 100190, China; School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 19 A Yuquan Rd, Shijingshan District, Beijing 100049, China; Corresponding author
Summary: China, holding nearly half of the global coal-fired power capacity, must shift from its coal-centric energy system to meet climate and air quality goals. This study explores the optimal utilization of natural gas by evaluating the environmental and economic costs of gas- and coal-fired power using plant-level data and a multidisciplinary modeling approach. We find that gas power has substantially lower air pollution costs (0.77 versus 12.2 cents/kWh) and moderately lower GHG costs (2.8 versus 4.5 cents/kWh), with an average environmental advantage of 12.1 cents/kWh and a social benefit of 10.4 cents/kWh when considering LCOE. The benefits vary spatially with the highest benefits in east-central China. Prioritizing substitution in regions with high environmental benefits could reduce SO2, NOx, and PM emissions by 28%, 15%, and 56%, respectively, offering a 52% higher environmental benefit than existing gas power plans. This study provides quantitative support for gas power development in China.
