Empirical evidence of the discount rate in the valuation of companies in Brazil

Abstract

The aim of this research is to investigate and to valuate if, in average, the discount rate’s forecasts, made by Brazilian firms in evaluation reports, are adherent over time to the observed. Forecasts of variables (Ki; Ke and WACC) have been raised in the firms’ evaluation reports with the purpose of a Public Offer of Acquisition of Shares (POAS) from 2005 to 2009, and have been compared to the averages observed by sector (obtained from Instituto Assaf’s data) over time and for more two periods after the evaluation process. To test these hypotheses, average tests have been done, in paired samples, applying the parametric t_Student test or the non-parametric test of Wilcoxon. The results show that, basically, the forecasts averages compared to the averages that have been observed, are adherent, statically, for the variable: weighted cost of capital (WACC). By the other hand, differences of average have been found for the variables: cost of debt capital (Ki) and cost of equity capital (Ke).

Keywords

• Avaliação de empresas
• Taxas de desconto
• Custo de capital
• Modelo de precificação de ativos de capital
• Oferta pública de aquisição de ações