Energy Demand and Carbon Emission Peak Paths for the Rise of Central China

Abstract

Energy revolution is essential for the coordinated and sustainable development of economy, society, and the environment, and it should coordinate with regional development strategies. Using the Kaya identity, this study categorizes the energy consumption demand brought by the rise of Central China into production and living demand. Energy demand scenarios for the rise of Central China are constructed considering factors such as gross domestic product, industrial structure, urbanization, energy efficiency, per capita income, and residential energy. Accordingly, the low-carbon development paths under energy revolution are analyzed. Urbanization and industrialization will promote the total energy demand in the five provinces in Central China up to 8.4×108–1.01×109 tce in 2035. Moreover, the establishment of a diversified energy supply system can help achieve low-carbon emission, energy security, and efficient utilization of energy; a carbon emission peak is expected to reach before 2030. China should vigorously develop technologies regarding energy conservation and clean and renewable energies. A multi-energy complementary system should be established in China by optimizing the industrial structure, and the existing energy system should be reformed to realize energy cooperation among regions.

Keywords

• energy revolution, rise of Central China, Kaya identity, scenario analysis, carbon emission peak