Prevention strategies of Moko Ralstonia solanacearum philotype II race 2 in plántain (Musa AAB Simmonds), using a simulation model

Abstract

Moko is a disease produced by the Ralstonia solanacearum philotype II race 2 bacteria, which has caused great economic losses and currently continues without adequate management. Therefore, the use of quantitative methods based on mathematical simulation models has gained importance in devising effective control programmes and interpreting epidemiological patterns. For this reason, appropriate prevention strategies for the incidence of banana Moko disease were evaluated, using a model of population simulation with nonlinear ordinary differential equations varying disease prevention scenarios with a population of susceptible and infected plants over time. The behaviour of banana Moko disease was plotted on a farm in the initial state of infection, considering $\lpar f \rpar$ the proportion of the prevention strategies used and the elimination of infected plants$\lpar g \rpar$, observing that when it is implemented $\lpar g \rpar$ the threshold value will be lower and the disease tends to be controlled, whereas when $\lpar f \rpar$ is implemented the threshold value is high and the disease persists over time. This effect of $\lpar f \rpar$ and $\lpar g \rpar$ was corroborated by the sensitivity analysis, which showed that the parameter that most influences the threshold value is $\lpar g \rpar .$ However, to decrease production costs due to the high implementation of prevention strategies, different scenarios are shown that favour the control of the disease and decrease these costs.

Keywords

• mathematical models
• moko
• banana
• ralstonia solanacearum
• prevention
• threshold