Prediction of China’s Express Business Volume Based on FGM (1, 1) Model

Abstract

With the continuous development of the economy, people’s lifestyle has changed greatly, online shopping has become a better choice for many people, and the express business volume is also increasing. Forecasting express business volume is of benefit to the healthy development of the logistics industry. Based on the data of China’s express business volume from 2015 to 2019, this paper uses the improved Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm to calculate the fractional-order r of the FGM (1, 1) model and forecasts China’s express business volume from 2020 to 2023. The results indicate that in the next few years, China’s express business volume will show a large growth trend, indicating that the express delivery industry still has a lot of room for development.