Analyzing Land Use/Land Cover Changes Using Google Earth Engine and Random Forest Algorithm and Their Implications to the Management of Land Degradation in the Upper Tekeze Basin, Ethiopia

Abstract

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) without appropriate management practices has been identified as a major factor contributing to land degradation, with significant impacts on ecosystem services and climate change and hence on human livelihoods. Therefore, up-to-date and accurate LULCC data and maps at different spatial scales are significant for regular monitoring of existing ecosystems, proper planning of natural resource management, and promotion of sustainable regional development. This study investigates the temporal and spatial dynamics of land use land cover (LULC) changes over 31 years (1990–2021) in the upper Tekeze River basin, Ethiopia, utilizing advanced remote sensing techniques such as Google Earth Engine (GEE) and the Random Forest (RF) algorithm. Landsat surface reflectance images from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) (1990, 2000, and 2010) and Landsat 8 Operational land imager (OLI) sensors (2021) were used. Besides, auxiliary data were utilized to improve the classification of LULC classes. LULC was classified using the Random Forest (RF) classification algorithm in the Google Earth Engine (GEE). The OpenLand R package was used to map the LULC transition and intensity of changes across the study period. Despite the complexity of the topographic and climatic features of the study area, the RF algorithm achieved high accuracy with 0.83 and 0.75 overall accuracy and Kappa values, respectively. The LULC change results from 1990 to 2021 showed that forest, bushland, shrubland, and bareland decreased by 12.2, 24.8, 1.2, and 15.4%, respectively. Bareland has changed to farmland, settlement, and dry riverbed and stream channels. Expansion of dry stream channels and sandy land surfaces has been observed from 1990 to 2021. Bushland has shown an increment by 17.2% from 1900 to 2010 but decreased by 19.5% from 2010 to 2021. Throughout the study period, water, farmland, dry stream channels and riverbeds, and urban settlements showed positive net gains of 484, 8.7, 82, and 26778.5%, respectively. However, forest, bush, shrub, and bareland experienced 12.17, 24.8, 1.2, and 15.37% losses. The observed changes showed the existing land degradation and the future vulnerability of the basin which would serve as an evidence to mitigate land degradation by avoiding the future conversion of forest, bushland, and shrubland to farmland, on the one hand, and by scaling up sustainable farmland management, and afforestation practices on degraded and vulnerable areas, on the other hand.