Monte Carlo Optimization of a Solar Combisystem Using Photovoltaic-Thermal Systems in Hot and Dry Climatic Condition

Abstract

In this study, the performance of a solar combisystem using glazed thermal photovoltaic-thermal systems is investigated and optimized to provide the thermal and electrical demands of a five-story building in Hot/Dry climatic conditions (Tehran, Iran). Dynamic simulation of the system performance is carried out using TRNSYS software. Since there is no type for a glazed thermal photovoltaic-thermal system in TRNSYS, it is modeled in MATLAB software and then the modeling results are coupled with the TRNSYS model. The system optimization using a stochastic economic analysis based on the Monte Carlo method showed the solar combisystem with a photovoltaic-thermal system area of 31.93 m2 and a thermal storage tank of 400 l provides the building energy demands optimally. For the optimum system, the probability that the payback time is less than 5 years, the internal rate of return is more than 20% and the life cycle savings is more than the initial cost is 74.2%, 11.5%, and 97%, respectively. The thermoelectric analysis of the optimum solar combisystem indicates that, in August, the maximum electrical, thermal, and total solar fractions of the system are obtained, which are 11%, 87%, and 39%, respectively.

Keywords

• solar combisystem
• photovoltaic-thermal system
• dynamic simulation
• monte carlo optimization
• trnsys