COSMO-CLM Performance and Projection of Daily and Hourly Temperatures Reaching 50 °C or Higher in Southern Iraq

Abstract

Fortunately, extreme temperatures reaching 50 °C are not common on our planet. The capability of the consortium for small-scale modelling regional climate model (COSMO-CLM), with 0.44° resolution, to project future trends of an extremely hot environment with direct model output (DMO) is questioned. The temperature distribution of COSMO-CLM output driven by reanalysis and RCP4.5 scenario in southern Iraq was remarkably good, with a slight temperature overestimation, compared to the overlapping observations from Basra airport. An attempt to enhance the DMO with a statistical downscaling method did not improve the results. The COSMO-CLM projection indicates that a very sharp increase in the number of consecutive hours and days with the temperature reaching 50 °C or higher will occur. During 1951–1980, consecutive hours and days reaching 50 °C were rare events. By the end of the century, the projected climate in southern Iraq contains up to 13 consecutive hours and 21 consecutive days reaching 50 °C or higher. As the average projected temperature will increase by ~2 °C compared to the recent climate, new records may be expected. However, the major climate change feature is the increase in consecutive hours and days of very high temperatures. These findings require adaptation measures to support future habitation of the region.

Keywords

• climate change
• heat wave
• projection
• model performance
• COSMO-CLM
• 50 °C