Fertility Transition in China and its Causes

Abstract

Demographic transition faced by modern economies, including China, are among the most important long-term socio-economic challenges. In 2022, China observed its population decline for the first time since the early 1960s. The low fertility rate was of critical importance. The unprecedented one-child policy is quite commonly indicated as the main reason for the low fertility rate. However, the departure from this restrictive policy and the actions introduced under the two-child policy implemented from 2016, and then the three-child policy from mid-2021, have not brought an improvement in fertility rates. The aim of the paper is to answer the following research questions: Should the decline and persistent low fertility rate in China be attributed solely or mainly to the unprecedented one-child policy, which was in force for over three decades?

Keywords

• china
• population
• demography
• fertility rate
• one-child policy