Preliminary assessment of preconditions to deliver carbon neutrality in apartment buildings by 2050

Abstract

Member states of European Union have large stock of residential buildings that require urgent renovation in order to reach carbon neutrality by 2050. In our paper we provide a preliminary evaluation of preconditions of such goal within the context of shrinking regions. Our data originates form renovation subsidy database of large renovation programme managed by state fund and form Nation Statistical Bureau. First we estimate the potential of apartment buildings occupation within the next 30 years. We exclude buildings that are going to be abandoned due to the demographical and migration reasons. Next we calculate the potential of construction sector to deliver required amount of renovations. We observe that the in our case current renovation rate must at least be increased by factor of three in order to comply with the carbon neutrality goal. This, however, is very challenging because supply of renovations’ construction is limited and overstimulated demand could increase construction prices significantly while rendering the effect of state incentives inefficient. Therefore an urgent technological change in renovation delivery is required to reach carbon neutrality goals.