Prediction of High-Risk Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumor Recurrence Based on Delta-CT Radiomics Modeling: A 3-Year Follow-up Study After Surgery

Abstract

Background: Medium- to high-risk classification-gastrointestinal stromal tumors (MH-GIST) have a high recurrence rate and are difficult to treat. This study aims to predict the recurrence of MH-GIST within 3 years after surgery based on clinical data and preoperative Delta-CT Radiomics modeling. Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted on clinical imaging data of 242 cases confirmed to have MH-GIST after surgery, including 92 cases of recurrence and 150 cases of normal. The training set and test set were established using a 7:3 ratio and time cutoff point. In the training set, multiple prediction models were established based on clinical data of MH-GIST and the changes in radiomics texture of enhanced computed tomography (CT) at different time periods (Delta-CT radiomics). The area under curve (AUC) values of each model were compared using the Delong test, and the clinical net benefit of the model was tested using decision curve analysis (DCA). Then, the model was externally validated in the test set, and a novel nomogram predicting the recurrence of MH-GIST was finally created. Results: Univariate analysis confirmed that tumor volume, tumor location, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR), diabetes, spicy hot pot, CT enhancement mode, and Radscore 1/2 were predictive factors for MH-GIST recurrence ( P < .05). The combined model based on these above factors had significantly higher predictive performance (AUC = 0.895, 95% confidence interval [CI] = [0.839-0.937]) than the clinical data model (AUC = 0.735, 95% CI = [0.6 62-0.800]) and radiomics model (AUC = 0.842, 95% CI = [0.779-0.894]). Decision curve analysis also confirmed the higher clinical net benefit of the combined model, and the same results were validated in the test set. The novel nomogram developed based on the combined model helps predict the recurrence of MH-GIST. Conclusions: The nomogram of clinical and Delta-CT radiomics has important clinical value in predicting the recurrence of MH-GIST, providing reliable data reference for its diagnosis, treatment, and clinical decision-making.