Jichu yixue yu linchuang (Mar 2021)
Constructing a risk predictive model for recurrence following nephron-sparing surgery in the treatment of clear cell renal cell carcinoma
Abstract
Objective To detect factors associated with recurrence after nephron-sparing surgery (NSS) in patients with localized clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC), and to construct a model for predicting the recurrence risk in five years following NSS. Methods Data of the patients who underwent NSS for renal occupied lesions between January 2006 and July 2019 at Peking University Third Hospital were retrospectively analyzed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to assess the factors associated with recurrence of ccRCC after NSS, and a nomogram was established to predict recurrence risk in 5 years following NSS. Results Totally 795 patients who were pathologically diagnosed with ccRCC were included in the study. Recurrence occurred in 17 cases, with the recurrence rate 2.1%. The median time to relapse was 35.7 months. In the univariable analysis, BMI (HR=4.102, P＜ 0.05), the artery blocking time (HR=0.194, P＜ 0.01) and tumor necrosis or sarcomatoid change (HR=5.160, P＜ 0.01) were associated with recurrence-free survival of the ccRCC patients after NSS. The multivariate analysis showed that these three factors were independent factors of recurrence. The accuracy of our nomogram for recurrence risk was verified using internal validation, and the value of c-index was 0.843. Conclusions BMI, artery blocking time and tumor necrosis or sarcomatoid change were independent factors for recurrence following NSS in the ccRCC patients. An accurate model to predict the recurrence risk is constructed, which may help to provide personalized managements for the aforementioned patients after NSS.
