Enhancing climate-resilient urban river restoration: predictive modeling of geomorphic changes

Abstract

Urbanization and climate change are two potent forces shaping the contemporary environment. Urban rivers, integral to city life, are profoundly affected by these dynamics. While restoration efforts have yielded promising results, a persistent challenge lies in the inadequate consideration of geomorphic processes and climate change impacts in restoration planning. This study addresses this critical gap by proposing a novel approach for designing stable urban river geometries in ungauged basins. Leveraging the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) method in conjunction with General Circulation Model (GCM) data, our research focuses on determining design discharge and channel stability. Our principal finding, based on the incorporation of parameters related to precipitation, runoff, and effective discharge, indicates a projected 35% increase in the width of stable urban rivers in the future. These results underscore the urgency of integrating climate change considerations into urban river restoration initiatives. Neglecting this imperative aspect risks the failure of restoration projects, particularly in addressing geomorphic challenges intensified by climate change. This research offers a valuable framework for future restoration efforts, ultimately contributing to the resilience and sustainability of urban river ecosystems. HIGHLIGHTS The manuscript advocates for a resilience-centric approach to urban river management. It underscores the importance of recalibrating historical reference conditions to adapt to climate-induced alterations.; The findings have immediate and far-reaching implications for urban river restoration projects. By recognizing the profound imprint of climate change on river stability parameters, stakeholders can recalibrate their restoration strategies to align with evolving environmental conditions. This adaptability is pivotal for preserving and enhancing urban river ecosystems.; Determine the design discharge according to the effective and bankfull discharge in the future.; This paper proposed a method to use the initial abstraction ratio to determine the discharge with a return period in ungauged basins.;

Keywords

• bankfull discharge
• climate change
• effective discharge
• hydraulic geometry
• natural channel design