Intercity Online Car-Hailing Travel Demand Prediction via a Spatiotemporal Transformer Method

Abstract

Traffic prediction is a critical aspect of many real-world scenarios that requires accurate traffic status predictions, such as travel demand prediction. The emergence of online car-hailing activities has given people greater mobility and makes intercity travel more frequent. The increase in online car-hailing demand has often led to a supply–demand imbalance where there is a mismatch between the immediate availability of car-hailing services and the number of passengers in certain areas. Accurate prediction of online car-hailing demand promotes efficiencies and minimizes resources and time waste. However, many prior related studies often fail to fully utilize spatiotemporal characteristics. With the development of newer deep-learning models, this paper aims to solve online car-hailing problems with an ST-transformer model. The spatiotemporal characteristics of online car-hailing data are analyzed and extracted. The study region is divided into subareas, and the demand for each subarea is summed at a specific time interval. Historical demand of the areas is used to predict future demand. The results of the ST-transformer outperformed other baseline models, namely, VAR, SVR, LSTM, LSTNet, and transformers. The validated results suggest that the ST-transformer is more capable of capturing spatiotemporal characteristics compared to the other models. Additionally, compared to others, the model is less affected by data sparsity.

Keywords

• intercity car-hailing
• travel demand
• prediction
• spatiotemporal transformer