The Capacity to Forecast Enterprise Insolvency on the Polish Market Using the Precursory Altman Z-Score Model (1968)

Abstract

Theoretical background: Many years have passed since the publication of the first multidimensional model (Z-score) of early bankruptcy warning by E.I. Altman in 1968. New models have since emerged in different countries. In this research stream, the share of econometric modelling based on the assumptions of discriminant analysis, i.e. MDA – Multiple Discriminant Analysis – one of the multidimensional classification methods categorised as empirical-induction methods, plays a particularly important role. Purpose of the article: The article assesses the capacity of the Altman Z-Score to forecast (1 year ahead) insolvency of enterprises on the Polish market. Research methods: Due to the sample size (i.e. over 2,700 bankrupt entities in Poland), the study constitutes one of the broadest studies carried out so far on the assessment of the predictive capacity of early warning models in Polish economy. Main findings: The authors, conducting research in this area, put forward a hypothesis that the variables that were well identified and introduced to discriminatory models in one economy work equally well in other countries. Despite the economic differences in these countries and the phases of the business cycle, the financial-analysis indicators that allow effective forecasting of enterprise bankruptcy are valid for different economies. The discriminant-function variability ranges that are characteristic of failing and healthy economic entities change but the variables themselves are good predictors.

Keywords

• bankruptcy
• insolvency
• discriminant analysis
• z-score models, altman