Epidemiological characteristics and early predict model of children Mycoplasma Pneumoniae Pneumonia outbreaks after the COVID-19 in Shandong

Abstract

Abstract Since October 2023, a significant outbreak of Mycoplasma Pneumoniae Pneumonia (MPP) has been observed in children in northern China. Chinese health authorities have attributed this epidemiological to immune debt resulting from the relaxation of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) control measures. This study described the epidemiological features of Mycoplasma pneumoniae (MP) prevalence in children and developed a straightforward prediction model to differentiate between MPP and viral pneumonia in children. The infection rate of MP in children notably increased from 8.12 in 2022 to 14.94% in 2023, peaking between October and November, especially among school-age children. Logistic regression screening identified four key indicators: Age, D-Dimer levels, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, and gender. The developed nomogram exhibited a receiver operator characteristic curve-area under the curve (ROC-AUC) of 0.858, with external validation confirming an ROC-AUC of 0.794. This study examined the epidemiological characteristics of MPP prevalence in children in Shandong Province during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. An early predict model was developed and validated to differentiate between Mycoplasma Pneumoniae and viral infections.

Keywords

• Mycoplasma Pneumoniae Pneumonia
• Nomogram
• Outbreak
• Epidemiology
• COVID-19