Geophysical Research Letters (Mar 2023)
Future Atmospheric Rivers and Impacts on Precipitation: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 High‐Resolution Global Warming Experiment
- Christine A. Shields,
- Ashley E. Payne,
- Eric Jay Shearer,
- Michael F. Wehner,
- Travis Allen O’Brien,
- Jonathan J. Rutz,
- L. Ruby Leung,
- F. Martin Ralph,
- Allison B. Marquardt Collow,
- Paul A. Ullrich,
- Qizhen Dong,
- Alexander Gershunov,
- Helen Griffith,
- Bin Guan,
- Juan Manuel Lora,
- Mengqian Lu,
- Elizabeth McClenny,
- Kyle M. Nardi,
- Mengxin Pan,
- Yun Qian,
- Alexandre M. Ramos,
- Tamara Shulgina,
- Maximiliano Viale,
- Chandan Sarangi,
- Ricardo Tomé,
- Colin Zarzycki
Affiliations
- Christine A. Shields
- Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research CO Boulder USA
- Ashley E. Payne
- Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering University of Michigan Ann Arbor MI USA
- Eric Jay Shearer
- Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing University of California, Irvine Irvine CA USA
- Michael F. Wehner
- Applied Mathematics and Computational Research Division Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley CA USA
- Travis Allen O’Brien
- Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Indiana University Bloomington IN USA
- Jonathan J. Rutz
- Science and Technology Infusion Division National Weather Service, Western Region Headquarters Salt Lake City UT USA
- L. Ruby Leung
- Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division Pacific Northwest National Laboratory WA Richland USA
- F. Martin Ralph
- Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California, San Diego La Jolla CA USA
- Allison B. Marquardt Collow
- University of Maryland Baltimore County Baltimore MD USA
- Paul A. Ullrich
- Department of Land, Air and Water Resources University of California, Davis Davis CA USA
- Qizhen Dong
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Kowloon Hong Kong
- Alexander Gershunov
- Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California, San Diego La Jolla CA USA
- Helen Griffith
- Department of Geography and Environmental Science University of Reading Reading UK
- Bin Guan
- Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering University of California Los Angeles CA USA
- Juan Manuel Lora
- Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences Yale University New Haven CT USA
- Mengqian Lu
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Kowloon Hong Kong
- Elizabeth McClenny
- Department of Land, Air and Water Resources University of California, Davis Davis CA USA
- Kyle M. Nardi
- Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science Pennsylvania State University University Park PA USA
- Mengxin Pan
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Kowloon Hong Kong
- Yun Qian
- Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division Pacific Northwest National Laboratory WA Richland USA
- Alexandre M. Ramos
- Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Karlsruhe Germany
- Tamara Shulgina
- Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California, San Diego La Jolla CA USA
- Maximiliano Viale
- Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales (IANIGLA‐CONICET) Mendonza Argentina
- Chandan Sarangi
- Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division Pacific Northwest National Laboratory WA Richland USA
- Ricardo Tomé
- Faculdade de Ciências Instituto Dom Luiz Universidade de Lisboa Lisbon Portugal
- Colin Zarzycki
- Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science Pennsylvania State University University Park PA USA
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102091
- Journal volume & issue
-
Vol. 50,
no. 6
pp. n/a – n/a
Abstract
Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long, narrow synoptic scale weather features important for Earth’s hydrological cycle typically transporting water vapor poleward, delivering precipitation important for local climates. Understanding ARs in a warming climate is problematic because the AR response to climate change is tied to how the feature is defined. The Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) provides insights into this problem by comparing 16 atmospheric river detection tools (ARDTs) to a common data set consisting of high resolution climate change simulations from a global atmospheric general circulation model. ARDTs mostly show increases in frequency and intensity, but the scale of the response is largely dependent on algorithmic criteria. Across ARDTs, bulk characteristics suggest intensity and spatial footprint are inversely correlated, and most focus regions experience increases in precipitation volume coming from extreme ARs. The spread of the AR precipitation response under climate change is large and dependent on ARDT selection.
Keywords
- atmospheric rivers
- high resolution climate change
- precipitation and extremes
- climatology
- atmospheric river detection tools
- uncertainty quantification
